Here is a detailed analysis of the projected wheat prices in the international market for 2025, based on current trends, expert forecasts, and the key factors that will influence them.
Executive Summary: The Overall Outlook for 2025
Most major agricultural analysts, including the World Bank, Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), and USDA, project that international wheat prices will remain elevated above pre-pandemic and pre-war levels but are expected to see a modest decline from the extreme volatility of 2022-2023.
The consensus is that prices will be highly sensitive to geopolitical events, weather patterns (especially El Niño/La Niña), and policy decisions by key exporting countries.
Key Price Drivers and Factors to Watch in 2025
The price of wheat is not determined by a single factor but by a complex interplay of the following:
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Geopolitical Stability (The Black Sea Region): The single biggest uncertainty. The continuation, escalation, or resolution of the war in Ukraine will have an immediate and massive impact. Any disruption to shipping corridors from this key exporting region will cause prices to spike.
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Global Weather and Climate Patterns:
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El Niño/La Niña: The current El Niño event is expected to transition to a neutral phase by mid-2024. The development of a La Niña in late 2024/early 2025 could bring drought to key wheat-growing areas in the Americas (e.g., the U.S. Southern Plains) and excessive rain to Australia and Southeast Asia, disrupting production.
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Droughts/Floods: Unpredictable extreme weather events in major exporting countries (U.S., Canada, France, Australia, Argentina, Russia) will be a constant source of volatility.
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Production and Export Levels from Major Players:
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Russia: Has become the world’s largest wheat exporter. Its massive harvests and aggressive pricing have been a suppressing force on global prices. Any change in its export policy or production (e.g., weather issues) will be critical.
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Ukraine: Production and export capacity remain hampered by the war. Its ability to move grain via the Black Sea or alternative routes will be a key factor.
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Other Exporters: The output from the EU (particularly France and Germany), the United States, Canada, and Australia will be crucial for balancing global supply.
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Energy and Input Costs: The price of natural gas (for fertilizer production), diesel fuel (for farming machinery and transportation), and fertilizers themselves remain high. This increases the cost of production for farmers worldwide, creating a higher price floor for wheat.
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Government Policies: Export bans, restrictions, or taxes imposed by countries to protect domestic food security (as seen from India, Argentina, etc.) can abruptly remove supply from the global market, driving prices up.
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Global Demand: While population-driven demand is relatively stable, economic conditions (potential recessions) can affect demand for higher-quality wheat products. Biofuel policies can also shift demand for grains.
Price Forecasts and Projections
It’s important to note that these are projections, not guarantees. Prices are typically quoted in US dollars per metric ton for a specific benchmark, most commonly US Hard Red Winter Wheat or Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) Wheat Futures.
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World Bank Forecast: The World Bank’s commodity markets outlook projects agricultural prices to decline by 2% in 2024 and a further 4% in 2025. They expect prices to remain elevated compared to the pre-pandemic average but to continue a gradual moderation from the 2022 peaks, assuming no major supply shocks.
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Long-Term Trend (FAO/OECD): The FAO-OECD Agricultural Outlook 2023-2032 suggests that in real terms (adjusted for inflation), agricultural commodity prices, including wheat, are expected to gradually decline over the next decade as global supply growth is projected to slightly outpace demand.
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Analyst Consensus: Many financial and agricultural analysts suggest a trading range for CBOT wheat futures could be between $5.50 and $7.50 per bushel for much of 2025, barring a major crisis. This translates to approximately $200 – $275 per metric ton.
Disclaimer: These figures are highly speculative. A single major drought in the US Midwest or a new geopolitical shock could easily push prices well above $8.00 per bushel ($290+/MT).
Potential Scenarios for 2025
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Bullish Scenario (Higher Prices): Escalation of conflict in the Black Sea, a strong La Niña causing severe droughts in North America, and simultaneous production issues in another major exporting region (e.g., EU or Australia). This could trigger export restrictions and push prices back toward 2022 highs.
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Bearish Scenario (Lower Prices): A resolution to the Ukraine conflict, a succession of record harvests in Russia, the US, and the EU, and a global economic slowdown reducing demand. This could push prices closer to the pre-2020 average (e.g., $5.00 per bushel / ~$180 per MT).
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Most Likely Scenario (Continued Volatility): A year of moderate prices with significant short-term spikes. Prices will react sharply to monthly USDA reports, weather forecasts during critical growing seasons (e.g., winter dormancy, spring planting), and headline news from geopolitical hotspots.
How to Stay Informed
To track wheat prices in real-time and get the latest forecasts, monitor these resources:
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Futures Markets: Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) Wheat Futures (ZW).
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Reports: USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, published monthly.
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International Organizations: FAO Food Price Index, World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook.
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Financial News: Bloomberg, Reuters Commodities section.
In conclusion, expect 2025 to be another year of “cautious optimism” for wheat buyers but with underlying volatility. The market will remain on a knife’s edge, highly reactive to news about weather and war.